Fall of Assad’s Pro-Iran Regime in Syria: What Will Be Hamas’ Next Move?
Damascus – The political and military landscape in Syria has shifted dramatically with the crumbling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which has long been seen as a staunch ally of Iran. With Assad’s control weakening, the entire region is watching closely, especially groups like Hamas, which have had complex relations with Syria over the years. As Syria’s pro-Iran regime tumbles, the key question is: how will Hamas react to this change?
The Syrian Civil War has been a defining moment for both regional powers and political groups, and the fall of Assad’s regime could reshape the dynamics not only within Syria but also in the broader Middle East. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that controls Gaza, has been closely linked to Assad’s government in the past due to shared interests in opposing Israel. But with Syria’s shifting political alliances, Hamas now faces a critical crossroads.
The Assad-Iran Alliance and Its Impact on Hamas
For years, Syria has been one of Iran’s closest allies in the Arab world. This alliance has provided Hamas with critical support, both politically and militarily. Iran, which backs Hamas through financial aid and weapons supplies, has also used Syria as a logistical hub for moving arms and fighters. The Assad regime’s support for Hamas was instrumental in providing the group with a safe haven in Damascus during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War.
However, as the war dragged on, Hamas began to distance itself from Assad. The brutal repression of Syrian civilians by Assad’s forces, as well as the rise of opposition groups, led to a shift in Hamas’ stance. By 2012, Hamas had publicly announced its support for the Syrian opposition, signaling a break with Assad. This decision was a significant one, as it signaled Hamas’ attempt to align more closely with Sunni forces, particularly those in the Gulf states.
Despite the shift, the ongoing Iranian support for Hamas continued, even as relations with Syria became strained. This complicated relationship has left Hamas in a delicate position, as it balances its interests between its benefactor Iran and its desire for broader Arab support.
What’s at Stake for Hamas Now?
The collapse of Assad’s pro-Iran regime presents a new set of challenges for Hamas. If the new power structure in Syria turns against Iran or shifts towards a more Western-aligned government, Hamas could find itself isolated. The group’s reliance on Iranian support could become a double-edged sword as it risks alienating potential Arab allies who view Iran’s influence in the region with distrust.
Moreover, Hamas’ position could be further complicated by the shifting dynamics in Syria’s neighbors, especially Lebanon and Iraq, where Iranian-backed militias are key players. Should Assad lose complete control, Iran’s influence in Syria might decline, potentially disrupting the flow of weapons and financial support to Hamas.
On the other hand, a reshaped Syrian government could offer new opportunities for Hamas. If a new regime emerges that is more sympathetic to Hamas or more hostile to Israeli interests, it could provide Hamas with a strategic advantage. This would allow the group to re-establish a foothold in Syria and reassert its influence in the region.
Possible Scenarios for Hamas in the Post-Assad Era
- Strengthening Ties with Iran: If Iran’s position in Syria remains strong despite the fall of Assad, Hamas may double down on its ties with Tehran. This scenario would see Hamas continue its reliance on Iranian funding and support while possibly seeking to re-establish connections with the remnants of Assad’s government, if they remain in power in some capacity.
- Seeking New Allies in the Arab World: With Syria in flux, Hamas may try to rebuild ties with Arab nations, particularly those in the Gulf. Countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which have provided funding to Hamas in the past, could become more important as Hamas looks for new avenues of support. This scenario would require Hamas to distance itself even further from Iran and reposition itself as a more pan-Arab movement.
- Isolation and Internal Struggles: The worst-case scenario for Hamas could be the isolation from both Iran and Arab nations. If the new Syrian government is hostile to Hamas or aligned with Western interests, Hamas might find itself in a difficult position. Without key backers, the group could face increased internal struggles and pressure from external actors.
The Region’s Future: How Hamas Will Adapt
As Assad’s regime weakens and the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East shifts, Hamas’ next moves will be crucial in determining its future role in the region. The group must navigate a complex web of alliances and rivalries, with Iran’s role in Syria being a key factor in Hamas’ survival.
While the situation in Syria remains volatile, Hamas will have to act swiftly and decisively to ensure it can continue its fight against Israel and protect its political and military interests. With the future of Syria in flux, the next few months will likely be pivotal for Hamas as it seeks to adapt to the new regional order.
Conclusion: What Comes Next for Hamas?
The fall of Assad’s pro-Iran regime in Syria opens a new chapter for Hamas. How the group responds to the shifting alliances in Syria, and how it positions itself within the broader Middle Eastern power structure, will determine its ability to continue as a major player in Palestinian politics and the wider Arab-Israeli conflict. With regional dynamics in flux, Hamas will need to act strategically to maintain its influence and ensure its long-term survival.